The Phoenix Suns’ superstar shooting guard Devin Booker, is off to a fantastic start as fans question whether Booker can win the 2022-2023 MVP Award.
Photo credit; Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Devin Booker is off to an incredible start for the first-place Phoenix Suns. The 26-year-old Booker is in his eighth NBA season, and good God has he been playing incredibly well.
Booker is a three-time all-star, one-time First Team ALL NBA (last year), and even has the honor of being a first Team All-Rookie from his 2015-2016 campaign. Booker has had an incredible career up until this point; this is easily his best statistical season.
Booker is averaging career highs in Points Per Game (PPG), Rebounds Per Game (RPG or TRB depending on the site, I like https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bookede01.html, so I will be using TRB moving forward), Personal Fouls (PF), Steals (STL), Offensive Rebounds Per Game (ORB) Field Goal Attempts Per Game, Minutes Per Game (MPG), Field Goals Per Game and Three Point Percentage (3P%) all while not missing a single game yet (knock on wood).
That’s a lot of words so let’s talk numbers. Booker is averaging 29.5 PPG, 5.2 TRB, 2.6 PF, 39% from three, 10.6 Field Goals Made, 21.4 Attempts, 36.4 Minutes Per Game, 0.9 Offensive Rebounds, and 1.1 Steals.
Booker is off to an incredible start; some of the efficiency numbers are not stellar, and his free throw percentage is only 86.6%, so he is not 50/40/90 at this point, the offensive rebounds per game not jaw-dropping nor are his 1.1 steals per game, but overall, it is an excellent start. Booker is also averaging 5.9 assists per game which is his third-highest in a season, but with Chris Paul, on the Suns’ roster, I would be concerned if he was passing more. Overall, it’s an outstanding season for a star player on a first-place team, especially when considering starter Cam Johnson is still out; they have been essentially playing a man down (two if you count whatever is going on with Crowder), so it would be nitpicky to criticize him too much.
When viewing the stats and factoring in how this team has been playing (15-7 as of Saturday night when I write this), a case for Booker to win MVP is undoubtedly fair and, quite frankly, warranted. However, looking at some of his competition would also be appropriate. I want to examine the main competitors, Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
My method in picking these particular players is that all of them, excluding Jokic, are ahead of Booker in both points and rebounds per game (Jokic leads in rebounds but not points), with only Tatum trailing in assists. Jokic is the two-time reigning MVP, so he gets automatically included in any MVP discussion until he is dethroned. The order above will be the order I go in.
Beginning with Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks, the 23-year-old Slovenian sensation is off to an impressive start to the season. Doncic, as of now, leads the league in PPG with 33.6, 1.8 ahead of the second-place holder Giannis Antetokounmpo. Luka’s 8.7 TRB is suitable for 22nd in the league, but first, for guards, Doncic is listed as a guard. Still, it is essential to note that he plays with the physicality and size of an old-school small forward, so he is expected to be leading most guards in the category; Luka is also 4th in APG (8.7), trailing league leader Tyrese Haliburton by 2.2 a game. Doncic is ahead of Booker in all three of these traditional stats and even has 4.0 Win Shares at this point in the season to Booker’s 3.5 thus far. Many would probably say, “case closed, Doncic should be the MVP,” but hold on, Doncic is putting up these gaudy numbers on an 11th-seed Mavericks team, which must count for something.
Going back in time, there have been a whopping two MVPs with a team record below a 500-winning percentage, those being Hall of Famers Bob Pettit of the then Saint Louis Hawks in the 1955-56 Kareem Abdul-Jabar of the Lakers in the 1975-76 season. Pettit’s season was the first year the MVP Award was given out, and Kareem averaged 27.7 PPG, 16.9 TRB, which led the league, an even five assists, and 4.1 blocks per game which unsurprisingly led the league. That is a ridiculous stat line, and it was the third-highest-scoring offense in the league despite missing the playoffs; yes, perhaps Bob McAdoo, who led the league in points, could/should have won it, but my point stands; those are video game numbers. Pettit led the league in scoring with 25.7 PPG and averaged 16. 2 TRB (only .2 behind rookie of the year Maurice Stokes), plus it is the first season for the award there was not an established criterion yet for who should win, not there is not a perfect method now, but even less so back then. Plus, despite being below .500, those Saint Louis Hawks got to the Western Division (Conference now) Finals.
Returning to this century, it’s inconceivable to give it to Doncic, who might be excellent stats and talent, a lousy team player. Jason Kidd certainly is not winning coach of the year as of now with how he has managed this roster, and due to the lack of talent, Doncic is expected to take more shots and, quite frankly, do more than someone like Booker or the other players later in this article. Doncic is a generational talent but let’s not kid ourselves; sports awards are just as much about narratives as it is the stat sheet, and it is hard to craft a description for a player on a lousy team; valuable is a subjective word; yes a great player on a bad team may impact their squad more than someone on a winning roster, but the argument of “take them off that squad and how good are they” typically ends those arguments because the team is still lousy win, lose or draw, with or without you. As of now, Booker should win over Luka.
Next to be judged is Jayson Tatum, the superstar forward of the Boston Celtics who was God-awful in the finals last year. Tatum has been playing out of his mind for the first-place Boston Celtics this season and is averaging 30.8 PPG, 8.0 TRB, and 4.4 APG. Those are excellent stats, and all three are career highs for the 24-year-old in his sixth NBA season. Tatum is currently the Vegas favorite as he has the best odds of winning the award per Vegas insider (https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/mvp/), perhaps deservingly so. Tatum is averaging 35.4 percent from three, the second to lowest of his career, but on the most attempts for his career, 9.5 per game. That’s the only “bad” stat as the NBA is in a three-point boom, but every other stat is exceptional. Tatum is a forward, so the assist numbers are not expected to be high; one may argue that he should average more with the talent around him. However, that is not a fair assessment. Tatum is the number one scorer on the highest-scoring offense in the league and 30th in defensive win shares (behind Booker and Suns’ center Deandre Ayton at 21 and 20, respectively), but 11 players have a .9 DWS, so how much does a tiny fraction matter? The Celtics are 18-5 as of Saturday, December 3rd, and given the stats I have laid out above, Tatum being ahead of Booker is fair, and he should get it over him.
The case for Kevin Durant is bizarre, as the 2022-2023 Brooklyn Nets season has been anything but ordinary to this point. The fact that Durant is not only playing well but excelling under such circumstances is nothing short of remarkable. Durant has been exceptional up to this point, already a league-leading 4.0 Win Shares (tied with Luka) and putting up 29.8 PPR, 6.6 TRB, and 5.4 APG thus far, all stats being better than Devin Booker. Like Luka, Durant has been putting up these sensational numbers on a Brooklyn team struggling. The 13-11 Nets have easily been among the most disappointing teams in the association at the season’s quarter mark and undoubtedly the most chaotic. The Nets have needed Durant to stabilize the chaos, and he has held up his end well. Between the Kyrie controversy and head coach Steve Nash mutually agreeing to part ways, the season has been one to forget.
Durant is already a league MVP which can sometimes make things harder for players to repeat as they get judged on those past numbers. However, the seasons are similar; Durant is averaging more points and assists per game than he did in his 2013-2014 MVP season when he won the award in his age-24 season. Durant is even on pace to match the DWS from that season but gets two fewer Win Shares for the season, although to be that good ten years after winning MVP is nothing short of legendary. Given that he wanted to be traded out of Brooklyn or have HC Nash fired as well as GM Sean Marks, before the season, some people may argue that should hurt his MVP odds, but I don’t see it this way. His production this season has shown me that he is a professional, and although there is drama around him, it is not entirely his fault. Since Jacque Vaughn took over, the team has been 11-6 when they were 2-5 under Nash, so perhaps Durant had a point. I don’t see a statistical or narrative-based argument for Durant to lose the MVP to Booker; yes, the Nets are the sixth seed. Still, only 2.5 games separate them and the three-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers, and given how this team has been gelling, that is much more reasonable than Luka’s Mavs catching some of the Western elites. I have Durant over Booker.
The Golden State Warriors are the defending champions and have not played like it this year, save for future first-ballot Hall of Famer and the first unanimous MVP (2015-16) point guard Stephen Curry. Curry was off to a hot start following his best season ever last year. Averaging 30.8 PPG, 6.9 TRB, and 7.0 APG to begin the year, Chef Curry has been cooking. All three are either his career-best or top three for that stat. Every member of the NBA media adores Curry, so if it comes down to just popularity, it would be a landslide, especially coming off his incredible finals run. The Warriors are in eighth place right now, having won 2 out of 12 games on the road (winning 10 out of 11 at home) and are three games back from Phoenix for first place in the West. That is easily obtainable, but that does not change the fact everyone expected them to be better, and it has almost become similar to the Luka situation in that Curry is his whole team but is surrounded by champions (with a championship-winning head coach in Steve Kerr) that have all struggled. Jordan Poole’s stats have dipped (especially his efficiency), and Draymond Green is not much of a scorer. Still, it plays his style of offensive basketball, and Klay Thompson still is not 100% after having a torn ACL and other complications. They could get up to par and catch Phoenix, but I don’t see that happening without Curry differing more from his teammates and therefore dropping some of his stats. Factoring in him being a two-time MVP and Booker not winning one, and the injuries Booker has had to deal with on his team, I would reckon Booker should get it over Curry, albeit in a close vote.
The two-time defending MVP Nikola Jokic has been the T-1000 version of Arvydas Sabonis since coming into the league and seems to be playing better year after year. Jokic has not been the scoring threat this year as he was in the past averaging 22.7 PPG, 9.8 RPG, and 8.9 APG as opposed to the 27.1 PPG, 13.8 RPG, and 7.9 APG last year. His efficiency numbers have increased, and he has been trying to get his teammates more involved this year, with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. returning from injuries this year. I’m going to skip the long drawn, out explanation and keep it straight, I do not see a way Jokic wins after he controversially beat Joel Embiid from the 76ers for the award last year (I thought Jokic should have won, but that does not seem to be the popular opinion) while having far worse PPG and RPG numbers, I do not think people are going to care that Jokic is averaging great efficiency numbers in comparison to other centers, for many reigning MVP winners, voters need a reason to vote for them again, and I’m not sure Jokic is going to give that reason. This year’s Nuggets squad is better than last year’s, and Jokic’s stats reflect that. Jokic is one of my favorite players in the league. Still, voters will not give him the benefit of the doubt if he goes up against Devin Booker and another player for the MVP Award, even if the second-place Nuggets make up the one game they trail Phoenix by and take the first seed.
Lastly, I present the case for or against Giannis. Aside from his career-high 31.8 PPG, which is second in the league behind Luka, all his stats have been somewhat average this year. Now, his average and the league’s average are radically different, but aside from points and made field goals; no stat stands out compared to everything else on the stat sheet. When watching him play, it’s clear he takes over games in a way that perhaps nobody else in the league does on both ends of the floor, but some of his stats are bad. He’s been useless from three averaging a putrid 22% from three (second lowest of his career), 61.4% from the free throw line by far the weakest of his career, which is not great to be with, 3.7 turnovers per game which are the lowest of his career, and 3.4 fouls per game which is also the weakest of his career. Once again, he is not having a bad season and is averaging more PPG and TRB than Devin Booker. Still, a big forward is supposed to get more rebounds than a guard. When Khris Middleton returns, Giannis’ scoring numbers will probably drop because those are touches he will not be getting, and his efficiency problems may remain. Going into this exercise, I thought Giannis would be my favorite to win the award, but I like Devin Booker on a first-place Suns team more than Giannis on the second-place Milwaukee Bucks. When Middleton returns, the Bucks should usurp the Celtics, but it won’t be with Giannis averaging 31.8 PPG, even if that happens.
There you have it; Booker should finish third in MVP voting behind Kevin Durant and Jayson Tatum. There is plenty of time for these stats to change, but this is what I think as of December 3rd, 2022. I did not have Ja Morant or Joel Embiid on here as Morant’s health is too risky for me; perhaps I will include him in something similar to this later in the year when/if he proves he could stay on the court and quite frankly, Joel Embiid has only played in 15 games. The 76ers have been so disappointing even before James Harden got hurt that I did not see a reason for him to be included.
Time will tell how accurate my predictions are; I plan to revisit this after the season ends to see how it holds up.
