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Only three games separate the first-place Suns from the 11th-place Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference.
Photo by Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images
Although it is too early to scoreboard watch, the Suns brass should be concerned with the amount of parity in this year’s Western Conference.
It is challenging to understate just how chaotic the Western Conference has been this year; as mentioned earlier, the difference between the first-place Suns opposed to the Warriors is only three games.
That is nothing this early into the season; this is not an article about the Warriors vs. the Suns; Golden State has been calling Phoenix “daddy” all season, so there is no reason to look at that matchup.
What is concerning, however, is everyone else. The Suns have had a very wonky season thus far in comparison to their western peers. Both teams have played and won more contests on the road. Phoenix is 11-1 at home and 2-5 on the road. This is important because Denver is right behind them in the standings, is 8-5 on the road and 4-2 at home, and Portland, a game and a half back, is 7-4 on the road.
Teams tend to win more home games than road games, so while it may be more beneficial to play more home games early to establish a comfortable lead over a conference or division, there is going to come to a point where they start playing more road games. In fact, from December 4th to January 16th, they play 16 road games and only eight home games, with a few four-game road trips.
By then, I expect them to be better on the road than they have been early this season. However, there is no guarantee when starting power forward Cam Johnson will be back and how he will look, it would also be irresponsible to bet on the health of the aging 37-year-old superstar point guard Chris Paul. CP3 had already missed some time this season, and even when he was younger, games played have not been the most flattering stat on the back of his trading card.
This team has some flaws regarding consistent rebounding (a topic I have written about frequently), but they have been better recently, now averaging the 19th most rebounds per game (43.1) as opposed to the 25th a few weeks ago. 2-point field goal percentage has also been a struggle, being ranked 20th (52.8%) despite averaging the 10th most attempts (56.9%).
These stats are more bizarre or exciting than problematic, as the Suns are still 11th in team points per game (114.7) and 5th in points against (107.4). These stats indicate that Phoenix is above average in scoring and elite in point prevention.
The issue that stands out to me is that it still seems like the Suns are just treading water and do not excel at any one thing. Perhaps that is a good thing as a multi-faceted jack-of-all-trades team does have value, but with how loaded the West is, that may not be sustainable anymore.
Utah will likely fall off as they have been struggling lately, falling to 6th in the western conference, and they lack the blue-chip guy’s other team’s have. For example, forward Lauri Markkanen is in the midst of a career year in every category aside from free throw percentage, three-point percentage, and total rebounds. However, the latter two stats are still higher than his career averages. Will Lauri continue to play at this all-star level, or will he regress to what the back of the trading card would indicate? The starting shooting guard of the Jazz, Jordan Clarkson, is also averaging some of the highest stats he has ever averaged, typically a 15.5 point per game scorer; Clarkson is up to 19.3 this year.
However, other teams seem a little more concerned; Portland has played the Suns well this year, playing Phoenix 3 times and winning two of the three. The Trail Blazers are 11-8, with superstar point guard Damian Lillard missing eight games already, averaging a solid 26.3 points per game on a career-low 33.3% from three-point range. Anfernee Simons, the starting shooting guard for Portland, is averaging 23.6 points per game with 3.9 threes made per game. Surrounded by bigs Jerami Grant and Jusuf Nurkic, this Portland team has a solid core with proven players; they will be more likely than not to continue to be a thorn in Phoenix’s side throughout the season.
Another tough team moving forward will be the Denver Nuggets. Currently, in second place, the Nuggets have a solid core of two-time reigning MVP Nikola Jokic at the center position, veteran Aaron Gordon at power forward, the young gunslinging shooting guard Jamal Murray at the 2-guard spot, and the ever-versatile Michael Porter Jr. as the small forward. That is an excellent starting 4 with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as the starting point guard and, currently, top 5 odds favorite 6th Man of The Year candidate Bones Hyland off the bench, averaging even 15 points per game. The Suns and Nuggets have yet to face off this year, but I must say, I wouldn’t say I like the matchup for the Suns. Jokic is off to an incredible start to the season, Bones Hyland is much better than anyone currently on the Suns’ bench, and the Nuggets rebound consistently well. MPJ’s health is always a concern, but Jamal Murray has yet to get into the rhythm of things after coming back from an ACL tear this season, averaging only 16.4 points per game, the second lowest of his career only behind his rookie campaign.
Overall, the Suns are an upper-tier Western Conference playoff team. Memphis is a solid team, but Ja Morant’s health is always a question; the New Orleans Pelicans are always a tough team, but I think the Suns’ experience will help them stay ahead of the streaky Pelicans; the Kings are a fun team to watch. However, they’re still an “I’ll believe it when I see it” kind of a team respectively, and the Clippers are a very streaky team as well; the depth is overrated, and hitching your wagon to two players that are injury prone has yet to pan out for the club.
The Suns winning the West or getting the coveted one seed is undoubtedly feasible, but the road to get there will be anything but easy. The Suns’ depth could have been better at times, there is no telling how Cam Johnson’s absence and return will affect the team long-term, and there is still the looming Jae Crowder question.
The solid Suns may have to do more than treat water moving forward if they want redemption in the playoffs.
