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The Suns’ rebounding woes may sink Phoenix’s hopes of staying afloat during Johnson’s IR stint.
The Suns were off to a blistering start and were in first place for much of the season to this point, that is, until this past week when the club lost to the Portland Trail Blazers for the second time this season, the Philadelphia 76ers and most recently, the Orlando Magic in a 17 point blowout.
In these losses, the Suns have been outrebounded 140 to 114, including a monster game by the 4-9 Magic where Orlando snagged 50 boards, their highest of the season. Forward Bol Bol had 15, and center Wendell Carter Jr. had ten, leading the club, with neither player playing more than 32 minutes. The leader for the Suns in this upset was shooting guard and franchise superstar Devin Booker with 8. The runner-up for Phoenix was center Jock Landale who had 6 in 13 minutes.
For the season, the Suns have had more rebounds than their opponents in 4 games (winning all 4), fewer than their opponents in 7 games (winning 3), and tying with their opponent in 2 games (the OT loss to Portland in the second game of the season and a win against Dallas opening night).
There is a trend to the Suns’ rebounding numbers and wins; the sample size is only 12 games.
The team is 25th in total rebounds per game(“TRB” and all stats according to basketball reference), 30th in defensive rebounds (DRB) and 19th in opponent total rebounds (OTRB), and 14th in offensive rebounds (ORB). 14th in ORB is pretty decent, but it’s a good stat to be average.
ORB leads to second chances, and historically more possessions lead to more points scored, so I’d much rather have them grab the 14th most than the 25th or 30th (I’d like to be a top 5 team in this category, but given the other rebounding numbers I should be thankful for what I have).
25th in TRB is not good, especially considering the teams behind them are off to relatively slow starts. The Mavericks are in last place for this stat, with the 76ers, Kings, Heat, and Nets in front of them. Only 1 one of those teams is a lock for the playoffs if the season ended today (the 6th-seeded Dallas Mavericks), and only two teams would be play-in teams (the Sacramento Kings and the heating up.
Brooklyn Nets). I do not believe the Heat or 76ers will be on the outside looking in come springtime, but they are on November 11, 2022, while I write this, so c’est la vie.
A championship-contending team being 30th in DRB is, quite frankly, a joke. Very famously, six-time NBA champion and five-time league MVP, Hall of Famer Michael Jordan, said, “Defense wins championships,” As we all know, preventing your opponent from getting extra possessions is crucial to playing defense. Whether you agree with “His Airness” is a non-issue; one thing is clear the Suns need to pick their board game up.
Now Phoenix holds their opponents to the fewest points per game in the league at just 105.5 points per game, but think of how many missed opportunities could lead to more possessions and possibly more issues? I cannot sit here and tell you that, but I can ask how long that stat will hold up.
The Minnesota Timberwolves and the Magic scored 117 and 114 in back-to-back games. The Suns beat the Timberwolves by 12 points regardless, and many of those Wolves’ points came in garbage time, but that is still 12 more than the average. As mentioned earlier, Orlando shockingly won that game on November 11. Honestly, it was not even close to winning by 17 and keeping Phoenix below 100 points for the second time this season (the other being the November 7th loss to the Philadelphia 76ers). The Timberwolves are 13th in points per game, and the Magic are 20th. Minnesota is respectable but not elite, and Orlando is wrong but not awful.
So, rebounding it’s established that rebounding is an issue, so how does the problem get remedied? For starters, Ayton may need to pick it up. 7.3 RPG could be better and only 37th in the league, behind bench players like Isaiah Hartenstein from the Knicks and Christian Wood from Dallas. Ayton is only playing 26.5 minutes per game which indeed has something to do with this pedestrian number, and perhaps 8 of the Suns’ games this year being blowouts have contributed to that MPG number, which is an excellent problem to have as most of those blowouts have been Suns victories, or it could be his 3.2 fouls per game, a career-high if the season ended today even with the decrease in minutes per game (from 29 last year to 26 this season).
Other players are averaging more minutes than Ayton but still not rebounding; Mikal Bridges and Devin Booker both average 36 minutes a night but neither averages more than 5.2 boards a game. Torrey Craig, who has been getting more playing time since Cameron Johnson’s injury, is only averaging 3.8 rebounds per game.
A possible solution for the Suns’ board issues could be playing Jock Landale more. Landale is 5th on the team in rebounds (tied with point guard Chris Paul and Booker with 4.5 per game) despite only playing 15 and a half minutes a game. Landale averages 2.8 fouls a game which may be why coach Monty Williams is hesitant to play him more, but you have to see what you have in the 27-year-old Landale.
Playing Landale more clearly will only solve the issue after some time, but it could be a start. I cannot help but notice the Suns lost two of their last three games to the Magic and 76; both teams are significant and play big. The Magic seemingly have a never-ending militia of significant power forwards and centers, and Joel Embiid plays for Philadelphia, and he’s, well, Joel Embiid.
The Suns will have to figure out how to get those extra possessions. The team has been able to stay afloat without Cam Johnson since he got placed on the IL last week, but that may only last for a while. Teams are starting to click more and work better together, and you may see some areas for improvement in the Suns’ roster.
This team is having a hard time rebounding; Deandre Ayton leads the squad in fouls per game, the second-unit Suns’ centers aren’t doing anything of note, and there is no quick fix for these problems.
If I were an opposing coach, I’d try to exploit this as much as possible. Bridges will lock you up behind the arc, and the backcourt tandem of Booker and Paul are not turnstiles on defense either. So, why not prioritize the paint? When Ayton gets in foul trouble, there’s no big that is particularly intimidating; Bismack Biyombo is not bad, but he isn’t Ben Wallace.
Dario Saric is seemingly under a strict minutes restriction as he hardly plays, and Jock Landale is a journeyman who has never been tested. Trust me when I say this if I can figure this out, opposing NBA coaches will figure this out.
