(PHOTO RECEIVED FROM CHARLES FOX / Staff Photographer)
(PHILADELPHIA, PA) With just under 20 games remaining in the NBA season, it’s time to start looking into the postseason. Some teams are making that late playoff push, increasing championship odds like the Boston Celtics, and other teams are dropping off heavily, including the Los Angeles Lakers. With the postseason just around the corner, what team will be labeled a “great regular season team but can’t perform in the playoffs?” We’ve seen examples of these teams like the 2015 Atlanta Hawks, where although they have the consistency to be successful over 82 games, they don’t have the firepower to win four out of seven. Today, we will go through the Eastern Conference and predict whether or not some teams are genuinely championship contenders or regular season pretenders (including the play-in teams).
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Miami Heat – 43-22 – Contenders
Even with tons of injuries throughout the year, the Miami Heat have dominated through depth and overall great team play. My COTY Erik Spoelstra has built confidence for rotational players like Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Omer Yurtseven, all critical pieces on a championship-contending team who weren’t in the rotation last year. Kyle Lowry has been a fantastic offseason addition, leading the team with eight assists and being the team’s primary guard. Bam Adebayo is starting to get hot offensively at the perfect time, as he’s averaging 21, ten, and four over his past five matches on 60% shooting.
Along with their defensive presence, Tyler Herro has had an incredible breakout year, averaging 21 points off the bench on 44% from the field. His shot creation abilities have been perfect alongside Jimmy and Bam. He can pull from anywhere on the court with confidence while also being steller off the ball. PJ Tucker has been the ideal glue guy, bringing grit defensively and shooting over 55% on corner threes.
Now comes the superstar, Jimmy Butler. Butler is averaging 21, six, and six while being one of the best defensive wings in the league. He’s also shooting 47% from the field, totaling the third-best percentage of his career. Butler has unmatched playoff experience from his 2019 bubble run, taking an injured Heat team to game six of the finals. The Heat is a perfectly built team, especially as they match up great against the other top teams out East like the Bulls, 76ers, and Bucks.
Philadelphia 76ers – 39-24 – Contenders
ALL PRAISE DARYL MOREY! Ideally, he managed to wait for James Harden to become frustrated with the Brooklyn Nets and deal out Ben Simmons (a player who would’ve never played another game as a 6er) and no young pieces to get a superstar. Absolutely Magical. Since joining the team of brotherly love, Philly’s “Big Three” has been nothing short of spectacular. Over a short four-game span, they are averaging incredible numbers.
James Harden : 26.8 points, 12.0 assists, 7.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 59 FG%, 50 3P%.
Tyrese Maxey : 26.8 points, 3.3 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 2.0 steals, 64.9 FG%, 70 3P%.
Joel Embiid : 30.0 points, 3.8 assists, 10.0 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 47 FG%, 29.4 3P%.
Oh, did I mention that they have won every game? The 76ers are scary, as it has been shown that firepower always beats an excellent overall team in the playoffs. Embiid is still playing at an MVP level, and Harden has found a way to elevate all the players around him, and I don’t see any of these players slowing down. Philly is meshing perfectly before playoff time, even just having this team structure for around two weeks.
Milwaukee Bucks – 40-25 – Contenders
Last night, Giannis fouled out of the game against the reigning Western Conference champions. Some would think that the Suns would fight back, routing behind Ayton’s season-high 30 points and win, but that’s not the case at all. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton combined for 68 points on 56% from the field, 33 in the fourth quarter, leading Milwaukee to the win. The Bucks are just as, if not scarier than they were last year. Giannis is performing at an MVP level, and supporting pieces Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen, and Jordan Nwora are playing great alongside the stars.
Quietly, Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 29.2 points, 11.6 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.4 blocks; MVP numbers. He’s added confidence in his mid-range ability, shooting a career-high 41.5% on shots three-ten feet away from the rim. He elevated his game to play more at the center position, with a career-high 43% of his time on the court occurring at the five.
Overall, the Milwaukee Bucks are a great, well-rounded team built for another championship run. Giannis is the best player in the league and has great supporting shot creators and defenders around him.
Chicago Bulls – 39-25 – Pretenders
The first pretender out East goes to the DeMar DeRozan, and Zach Lavine led Chicago Bulls.
Although DeMar has been a consistent MVP candidate, and Lavine has been incredible, I can’t put them ahead of the three teams mentioned above. Many people believe in Chicago, and I see why. They have the chemistry, offensive firepower, solid exterior defense (with Lonzo and Caruso) and have dominated the East until recently. Chicago has exceeded expectations and is having their best season in recent history. These are the most exciting Bull’s we’ve seen since Derrick Rose won MVP.
So why aren’t they contenders? Here are three reasons Chicago might not even make it out of the first round and definitely won’t make it to the conference finals.
1. Nikola Vucevic
Vucevic is a top ten center in the league, and I’m not trying to disrespect him in any way. He’s averaging 18 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. For being the third option offensively, that is a fantastic stat line. The other side of the ball is worrisome for Bulls fans. He’s putting up a steal and a block a game, but he cannot defend anyone consistently down low. With dominant bigs like Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jarrett Allen, and Pascal Siakam in the East, they will have a field day with Vucevic down low. Although he’s great offensively, we have seen through players like Rudy Gobert and Jarrett Allen how important interior defense is, and I don’t see Vucevic making much of an impact without defending.
2. Lack of Playoff Experience
No one else has made it past the second round of the playoffs outside of DeMar DeRozan, Alex Caruso, and Tristan Thompson (who has played five games for the Bulls). The Bulls are a very young and inexperienced team. Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu, and Derrick Jones Jr. are all crucial rotational players under 24. Even Lonzo Ball, when he comes back, has limited playoff experience while looking to lead the team on defense and as the primary ball-handler at just age 24. Going against teams like Miami, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia, whose cores have all played big games in the playoffs, will hurt Chicago in a seven-game series.
3. Superstar Talent
DeMar DeRozan has been incredible this year; 28.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.1 assists, and 53 eFG%. Even with this MVP season, we have to look back at his Toronto days as it’s the only evidence we have of him performing in the playoffs. DeRozan has always played worse in the playoffs than the regular season. For reference, in 2016-17, DeRozan averaged 27.1 points a game in the best season of his career. DeRozan’s splits dropped to 22 points on 43% from the field and 6.7% from three throughout ten playoff games. DeRozan also thrives within the three-point line, unliked by sports analytics, which states that teams are better off taking threes than 15-foot jumpers. While it’s easily noticeable that Zach Lavine and DeMar DeRozan are among the best duos in the league, a pair like James Harden and Joel Embiid, or even Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton have proven themselves in the playoff atmosphere. There’s a good reason to believe that the Bull’s top players won’t perform to the extent they have during the regular season.
With how loaded the Eastern Conference is, I don’t see the Bulls as genuine contenders this season, but fully healthy next year might look different.
Boston Celtics – 39-27 – Contenders
Boston Celtics… CONTENDERS!? But they started the season 16-19 with one of the worst defenses in the league! Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown can’t play together! The supporting cast around their stars doesn’t fit! Marcus Smart isn’t a true point guard!
Yes, the Celtics started the season roughly. They were a bottom-five assist team, didn’t show any effort defensively, and ultimately ran their offense through isolation basketball. NBA fans came at Ime Udoka and Brad Steven’s throats, stating how bad of an idea it was to get rid of Danny Ainge. But since the new year started, the Celtics are 22-8 and averaged 25.6 assists a game, the sixth-highest in the NBA. Their defense has drastically improved, as they currently have a defensive rating of 106.4, second-best in the NBA. Tatum and Brown have become more accepting of sharing the ball with their teammates, as Marcus Smart and Al Horford have become more valuable parts of the Celtics offense.
Two players that have incredibly impressed me are Derrick White and Grant Williams. White, acquired at the trade deadline for Josh Richardson and a first-round pick, has overly exceeded expectations. He’s brought great shooting, wing defense, and veteran leadership. He increases ball movement on the perimeter, opens up lanes for Tatum and Brown, and is a consistent free throw shooter. In the ten games, he’s been a Celtic, he’s averaged a +/- of +6.1 while only playing 25 minutes a night off the bench. The Celtic-Spurs trade was a win-win, and White has been incredible for Boston so far.
Grant Williams. A player who came into the league as just a defensive stopper and immediately made himself a meme has been one of the best role players in the NBA. Williams is shooting 44% from three on 3.4 attempts a night. Williams came into the league shooting 25% on 1.4 attempts as a rookie and then 37% on 2.0 attempts as a sophomore. Williams has shown constant improvement as a player and is a tremendous defensive-minded four, who can also spread the floor and convert on catch and shoot situations. Players like White and Williams, around stars Tatum and Brown, give me confidence when I call Boston a contender. Although they might not make it to the finals, I could see Tatum leading Boston to seven games against any top teams out East.
Cleveland Cavaliers – 37-27 – Pretenders
J.B. Bickerstaff and the Cavs have been one of the most surprising teams this season. Led by Darius Garland, the Cavs have jumped from being a bottom-five team in the league to a definite playoff team for years to come. They have three all-star caliber players, all under the age of 23. Even with adding Caris Levert at the deadline, the Cavs are still too young to make a deep playoff push, especially with how stacked the East is. Cleveland should be excited for the future, though, as they have done a great job rebuilding.
Let’s start with the all-stars. Darius Garland went from being the worst defensive player in the league to a top ten point guard averaging 20.6 points and eight assists. He’s also incredibly efficient, shooting 47.8%, 38.2%, and 90.3%. Garland has learned the pacing of the NBA and become one of the best in the league as the pick and roll ball-handler.
Jarrett Allen went from being a lob-threat in Brooklyn to a dominant two-way center in Cleveland. Allen averages 16 and 11 while shooting 70% from the charity stripe and a force to be reckoned with down low. Allen is putting up 1.3 blocks a game while defending nearly every shot taken in the paint. He’s been amazing, and his growth next to Garland offensively has not gone unnoticed.
Then comes the ROTY Evan Mobley. Mobley and Allen, both under 23 years old and under contract for years to come, are looking to become the most dominant front-court in the league. Mobley has already solidified himself as a top-five defender in the NBA, averaging 1.7 blocks and 0.8 steals while having the length and lateral quickness to defend all five positions. Mobley can kill you from wherever, the mid-range, pick and roll, isolation situations, or in the post. He’s even become a better playmaker throughout the year, although only averaging 2.6 assists a game.
This is the best team Cleveland has seen since LeBron left for LA and will continue to grow and mesh into one of the best teams in the league. Unfortunately for Cleveland, they don’t have the vigor to keep up with the top teams. This year, they will be getting excellent playoff experience, which is crucial for a young team like the Cavaliers.
Toronto Raptors – 34-30 – Pretenders
The Raptors are filled with great depth and a bunch of borderline all-star talent but are currently missing that superstar to put everything together (like Kawhi Leonard). Nonetheless, FVV, Siakam, Gary Trent, OG, and Scottie Barnes have been excellent this season and deserve recognition for being the seven seed in a loaded East.
Toronto is very starter-heavy, as they don’t have a good bench; hence, all five starters play over 34 minutes a night. They have a good mix of offense and defense but don’t wholly excel at either. They play in many close games and can sneak out wins late in games with clutch play from Freddy and Siakam. Toronto is ranked 16th in offensive ranking and 14th in the defensive ranking.
Before moving on to the Hornets, I want to give much credit to Pascal Siakam. Although not an all-star, Siakam is having a fantastic season after being heavily doubted in recent history. 21.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 5.0 assists while playing primarily as an undersized center makes this arguably the best season of his career. Siakam went from a player who was considered overrated to meshing into his role and thriving as a small-ball center. Siakam is shooting a career-high 45% from corner threes, showing just how good he could be if he were in the position to play his natural power forward position.
Although Toronto won’t make it out of the first round, they have a team that is one piece away from contending, and Scottie Barnes is looking to take that spot as he’s been fantastic in just his rookie year.
Charlotte Hornets – 32-33 – Pretenders
Don’t get it twisted; the Hornets are an entertaining and upcoming team. They have a gaping hole at the center, holding them back from being a defiant playoff team. They have Miles Bridges and LaMelo Ball, both under 23, with unlimited potential. Surrounding pieces Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, and Kelly Oubre have all been excellent, fitting well with their star talent.
Currently sitting at the 8th seed, I don’t see them making the playoffs, unfortunately. The Hornets have good core pieces to build around but now don’t have the talent to make it out of the first round, if they can make it into the playoffs, possibly having to face the Brooklyn Nets or Atlanta Hawks in the play-in. They have experimented with P.J. Washington, Mason Plumlee, and even recently with Montrezl Harrell at the center, but none have worked. Although Plumlee has been solid, averaging 6.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, he’s well known as a backup center and not a starter on a playoff team.
Brooklyn Nets – 32-33 – Contenders
How can a team with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving not be considered contenders? Even with trading away James Harden, they added much-needed depth and filled holes, including more shooting and increasing talent at center. Since heading to the City, Seth Curry and Andre Drummond have been valuable starters, playing their role and thriving in it. Curry has averaged 16 points while shooting 46% from three in nine games as a Net. Drummond has averaged nine points, and nine rebounds, including three offensive rebounds a night. Both have been great for the Nets, and we haven’t even mentioned Simmons.
And I don’t think we have to. Whether or not Simmons comes in and is effective, the Nets are still contenders. Durant can take over a game at any point, next to the greatest ball-handler in NBA history. This season, the 2014 MVP is averaging 29.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 5.8 assists amid Brooklyn’s craziness. He’s still one of the best players in the league and is finally 100% healthy right before playoff time.
When looking at the current play-in bracket, I’ll take Durant to put up 50 on any opposing teams, leading the way for a tough first-round matchup. Brooklyn could make a deep playoff run if New York state gets rid of the current COVID-19 mandate allowing Kyrie to play in home games. It’s merely impossible to defend Durant and Irving on the court, so the key will be not allowing the surrounding players to gain any confidence during a seven-game series.
Atlanta Hawks – 31-32 – Pretenders
Fully healthy, we have seen how scary Atlanta can be. With Trae Young surrounded by shooters, defenders, and energized players, they are talented enough to go to the conference finals. The issue this year is that they cannot stay healthy. Their bench consists of Delon Wright, a 33-year-old Danilo Gallinari, a 35-year-old Lou Williams, and an inconsistent Onyeka Okongwu. De’Andre Hunter, one of the most essential starters next to Trae, has only played 35 games. It’s impossible to build chemistry and a rhythm with all these starters missing valuable time throughout the regular season, hence why they are currently the ten seed out East.
If the Hawks were a top-five team in the East, Trae Young would undoubtedly be an MVP candidate. He’s putting up an incredible 28 points, 9.3 assists, and 3.8 rebounds while shooting just over 38% from three. He’s been just as good, if not better than Ja Morant, but Morant is getting all the media love since the Grizzlies are so successful. Give Trae more respect, as he dominates with an injury-prone team around him. Trae thrives on driving to the basket, drawing double teams, and dishing it, but none of the players he is dishing to can hit open shots.
If Atlanta was fully healthy, they could be considered a better team than Chicago. Unfortunately for Nate McMillan, they are not and haven’t been all season. They are incredible offensively, with a rating of 115.4 (2nd in the league), but can’t defend a rock with a defensive rating of 114.6, 27th ranked. Hopefully, Trae can carry this injury-prone team to the playoffs because we all know how dangerous he can be on the big stage.
